19-10-2014-Weekly: OVER-VIEW:
The markets closed in green
on Friday across the globe barring Nikkei, Shanghai in Asia, the week closed in
red as the deep sell off in DAX created ripple effect in other markets. All
most all markets corrected sharply during the week but managed to recover from
those losses on Friday. So the markets likely to see some more volatile
sessions ahead due to short coverings in the half of the next week.
The US and Europe markets
see some technical pull back but not a bullish support
20-10-2014-Monday-POSSIBLE-SCENARIO:
Lots
of Action packed week a head in India politically, policy wise and stock market
gyrations to that effect.
People
who are criticizing the Govt. for their non-action on many issues started
supplying the wish list…
The
Maharashtra state Govt. formation may
see some days of speculation for sure….may keep the Bulls on defensive front,
otherwise the Nifty likely to see crossing the resistance at 7980 level, may
easily touch 8032 in next 4 trading sessions…the Diesel decontrol and Gas price
hike can add value to PSU counters and Govt can easily sell it’s intended stake
sale during Feb-March-2015.
The
ONGC is a clear beneficiary apart from private players, the 2000 cr profit is a
wind fall gain for each dollar increase in the GAS price can translate to close
to 10-12% increase in the net profit. The positive sentiment can add 50% more
on it means a 15-17% price rise at this current market value may bring the
bottom layer support price of 425-445 and higher side it may cross 475-490
range. Technically speaking the yearly high cut can be expected so long as it
stays above 420.
Similarly
the all the beneficiaries will add value. The Reliance may easily cross the
earlier resistance at 965-72 range and may easily touch 990-1020 range.
The
BPCL, HPCL and IOC are at the advantage on the long run as the de-regulations keeps
them happy to pass on the burden despite of strong surge in the CRUDE prices,
but the LPG, Kerosene story may continue for some time. So net balance is more
benefit less risk counters in the medium to long-term.
BEAR COUNTERS: The real change is to kick
start the lagging economic growth with fierce investment drive to sustain the
growth as well to propel the speed to touch 6.5-7.5 range. Now, without any
doubts, the RBI may cut rate in Dec-Jan-15 review, as the global recession
SLOGAN is already catching up for more incentives.
The counters in Power sector will see some
correction unless Govt. assures UMPP purchases be revised upwards. The scarcity
of raw material and expanded capacities, lack of cash flows add problems on the
interest side may correct further unless the prices are revised soon…
The banks which have huge exposure to this
sector will see some correction…PFC, REC, BOB, PNB Orient and BOI are already
in troubled waters will see another leg of selling above Nifty at 7980-8014
range
BULL COUNTERS: PSU OMCs and Oil producing
companies. The ICICI bank in buls grip has bottom support at 1489-92 range, may
cross 1551-56 resistance.
Axis results are good, so may cross 418-16 resistance
from 398-401.
Yes bank is good above 593-96, may cross 626 resistances
to touch 636.
The short term short covering may take BOB to 906-914
range once it stays above 875.
F&O
action:
The Reliance below 926 can take unwinding pressure to 876-79 range; any move
above 948 can easily take it to 990-996 range without much difficulty.
The UBI, YES, ICICI, AXIS are charting for
yearly high cuts….many are in the row if Nifty stay above 7950 and Bank Nifty
above 15850 for 2-3 trading sessions.
